Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:01:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
37 0x3790…5e8b sports 305 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,701 (-0%) realized −$1,751 · open +$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate73%218W / 82L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,400per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$645est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1,383now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,034
7 days−$201
14 days+$5,324
30 days+$5,324
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$3,402
tech 7% −$2,947
other 5% +$3,549
crypto 2% −$77
politics 2% −$71
economics 1% +$242
culture 1% +$39
world 1% +$1,125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -9.2% -17.9% 22% 22% -12.2%
≤30d 23 +37.0% +24.0% 39% 39% +44.4%
≤90d 118 +4.8% -5.2% 69% 66% -8.9%
all 300 +4.9% -5.1% 73% 57% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.1% 57% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -14.1% 32% -18.5%
15% -22.4% 10% -26.4%
20% -30.0% 7% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$2,075) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$337 vs −$916 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$1,383
Realized−$1,751
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses218 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$645
Open positions5
Markets (closed)300 / 305
History coverage238d
Avg bet$1,400
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 300 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 95¢ $930 $953 +$23 (+3%)
Spread: France (-4.5) France 20¢ 22¢ $200 $215 +$15 (+7%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 92¢ $130 $133 +$3 (+2%)
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Yes 13¢ 14¢ $72 $80 +$8 (+12%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 69¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $256 −$16 -6%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $70 +$19 +27%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $338 +$810 +240%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $305 −$305 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 22 $492 −$492 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $510 −$19 -4%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $525 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $493 +$2,036 +413%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $493 −$205 -42%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1,034 −$530 -51%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $202 +$126 +62%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 15 $160 −$160 -100%
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $767 −$767 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $110 −$110 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $400 −$19 -5%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $364 −$364 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $128 +$129 +101%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $1,470 +$3,780 +257%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $251 +$1,519 +606%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $203 +$52 +26%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $159 +$44 +27%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5 May 21 $815 −$815 -100%
Kasımpaşa SK vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 1.5 May 21 $813 −$813 -100%
Olympique de Marseille vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 1.5 May 17 $783 −$14 -2%
Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 1.5 May 17 $810 +$149 +18%
SV Darmstadt 98 vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 1.5 May 17 $800 +$119 +15%
FC Utrecht vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 1.5 May 17 $910 +$132 +14%
Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5 May 17 $928 +$170 +18%
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 1.5 May 17 $757 +$183 +24%
1. FC Magdeburg vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 1.5 May 17 $799 −$799 -100%
Hibernian FC vs. Motherwell FC: O/U 1.5 May 17 $790 −$790 -100%
PEC Zwolle vs. Heracles Almelo: O/U 1.5 May 17 $939 −$939 -100%
Urawa Red Diamonds vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 1.5 May 17 $770 −$770 -100%
Falkirk FC vs. Motherwell FC: O/U 1.5 May 17 $874 −$874 -100%
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK: O/U 1.5 May 17 $1,004 −$1,004 -100%
New England Revolution vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 1.5 May 17 $885 −$885 -100%
Antalyaspor vs. Alanyaspor: O/U 1.5 May 17 $1,016 −$1,016 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 17 $3,272 −$3,272 -100%
San Diego FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 1.5 May 17 $811 +$89 +11%
Houston Dynamo vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 1.5 May 17 $607 −$255 -42%
Orlando City SC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 1.5 May 17 $495 +$84 +17%
D.C. United SC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 1.5 May 17 $501 +$129 +26%
Charlotte FC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 1.5 May 17 $497 +$112 +23%
CF Montréal vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 1.5 May 16 $824 +$175 +21%
Gaziantep FK vs. Rams Başakşehir FK: O/U 1.5 May 16 $554 +$66 +12%
Samsunspor vs. Göztepe SK: O/U 1.5 May 16 $550 +$144 +26%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5 May 16 $803 +$76 +10%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 1.5 May 16 $202 +$27 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $98 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $100 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 1h
Spread: France (-4.5) BUY France 20¢ $167 1h
Spread: France (-4.5) BUY France 20¢ $34 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 22¢ $0 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 22¢ $87 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 22¢ $2 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $256 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $7 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $26 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $13 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $8 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $6 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 75¢ $819 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 30¢ $132 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,382.69 · official $1,372.27 (match) · 2442 history records