Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:45:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x378d…d1c9 weather 24 markets active 1d ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$46 (-38%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate29%7W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$38
14 days−$49
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 76% −$21
other 13% −$15
crypto 11% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-46.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -44.9% -50.2% 38% 38% -52.1%
≤30d 24 -40.3% -46.0% 29% 25% -46.4%
≤90d 24 -40.3% -46.0% 29% 25% -46.4%
all 24 -40.3% -46.0% 29% 25% -46.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.0% 25% -46.4%
10% -51.2% 17% -51.6%
15% -55.9% 17% -56.3%
20% -60.2% 8% -60.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses7 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage8d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $13 −$12 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 10 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 10 $3 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $13 −$5 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C or below on June 9 Jun 09 $2 −$1 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes $13 31h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 87¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 48¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? BUY No 83¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 70¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 77¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 72¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL No 94¢ $12 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 79¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June SELL Yes 12¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY Yes 12¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 9? SELL Yes $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 9? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 8d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 8d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 9? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 9? SELL Yes $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 9? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 9? SELL Yes $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 9? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? SELL No 76¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records