Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:59:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
37 0x378d…bcbc world 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$76 (-25%) realized +$13 · open −$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$94
tech 17% +$5
other 17% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +12.5% +1.8% 100% 100% +1.8%
≤30d 1 +12.5% +1.8% 100% 100% +1.8%
≤90d 1 +12.5% +1.8% 100% 100% +1.8%
all 1 +12.5% +1.8% 100% 100% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 100% +1.8%
10% -8.0% 0% -8.0%
15% -16.8% 0% -16.8%
20% -25.0% 0% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized+$13
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1 / 5
History coverage6d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 15¢ 16¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-11%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 55¢ 8¢ $100 $15 −$85 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $51 +$6 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 15¢ $52 1h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $57 24h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $51 32h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 4d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 55¢ $100 5d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $50 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.19 · official $161.19 (match) · 6 history records