Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:49:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x378b…9e69 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$46 (-15%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$65
sports 12% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +5.7% -4.4% 42% 37% -25.1%
≤30d 19 +5.7% -4.4% 42% 37% -25.1%
≤90d 19 +5.7% -4.4% 42% 37% -25.1%
all 19 +5.7% -4.4% 42% 37% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 37% -25.1%
10% -13.6% 37% -32.3%
15% -21.9% 32% -38.8%
20% -29.6% 21% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage7d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $32 +$15 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $19 +$10 +52%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $9 −$7 -75%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 +$29 +474%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $34 +$16 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$5 +307%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $21 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $32 4h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $19 26h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 28h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $21 28h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 41h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 41h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $25 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $7 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $20 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $19 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.64 · official $29.64 (match) · 30 history records