Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:33:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x378a…4439 crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-9%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -28.5% -35.3% 40% 40% -22.6%
≤30d 10 -28.5% -35.3% 40% 40% -22.6%
≤90d 10 -28.5% -35.3% 40% 40% -22.6%
all 10 -28.5% -35.3% 40% 40% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.3% 40% -22.6%
10% -41.5% 30% -30.0%
15% -47.1% 10% -36.8%
20% -52.3% 10% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$12 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records