Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:14:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

37 0x378a…2e5b crypto 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$6 (+7%) realized +$8 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip

Net edge+9%after slip

Net WR86%break-even

Win rate90%19W / 2L

Drawdown25%max

Avg bet$4per market

Trades / day41.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +86%

net ROI/market (all)+27.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+41.1%	+27.7%	90%	86%	+24.2%
≤30d	21	+41.1%	+27.7%	90%	86%	+24.2%
≤90d	21	+41.1%	+27.7%	90%	86%	+24.2%
all	21	+41.1%	+27.7%	90%	86%	+24.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover41.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+27.7%	86%	+24.2%
10% ← realistic here	+15.5%	86%	+12.3%
15%	+4.3%	62%	+1.4%
20%	-5.9%	48%	-8.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 9% · top 2 19% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

5% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +41% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +20% → late +61% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×5.01 per $1 lost it wins $5.01

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$8

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)90%

Wins / losses19 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)21 / 22

History coverage1d

Avg bet$4

Trades / day41.0

Drawdown25%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	8¢	0¢	$2	$0	−$2 (-99%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Jun 16	$3	+$2	+79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$2	+36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Jun 16	$4	+$3	+66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Jun 16	$10	+$3	+28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Jun 16	$4	+$1	+28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Jun 16	$3	+$4	+114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Jun 16	$4	+$3	+68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Jun 16	$3	+$3	+99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Jun 16	$4	+$4	+91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Jun 16	$4	+$2	+52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Jun 16	$5	$0	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$2	+38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Jun 16	$3	+$3	+86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Jun 16	$4	+$1	+29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Jun 16	$4	+$2	+44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Jun 16	$2	+$1	+28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Jun 16	$4	−$4	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Jun 16	$4	−$4	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Jun 16	$3	+$2	+71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Jun 16	$4	+$1	+32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Jun 16	$3	+$2	+70%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	SELL Down	100¢	$5	24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$3	28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$7	32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	BUY Down	71¢	$5	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$7	49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$4	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$13	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	BUY Down	70¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	BUY Down	83¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	SELL Up	100¢	$7	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	BUY Down	76¢	$4	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	BUY Up	45¢	$3	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$7	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$4	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$6	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$3	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$8	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$4	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	SELL Up	100¢	$6	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$4	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	BUY Down	93¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	SELL Up	100¢	$7	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	BUY Up	71¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	SELL Up	100¢	$6	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$3	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	SELL Down	100¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Down	76¢	$4	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 45 history records