Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:50:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
37 0x378a…a638 sports 396 markets active 2h ago coverage 612d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,837 (-4%) realized −$2,549 · open −$288
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%146W / 232L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$152est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$727now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,163
14 days−$817
30 days−$3,150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$484
other 27% −$2,155
world 24% +$56
sports 10% −$398
crypto 1% −$53
tech 0% −$34
economics 0% −$155
finance 0% −$127
culture 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +6.9% -3.3% 17% 17% -30.9%
≤30d 116 -9.5% -18.1% 29% 24% -19.2%
≤90d 348 -11.6% -20.0% 40% 35% -12.6%
all 378 -13.4% -21.7% 39% 34% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 34% -13.3%
10% -29.2% 30% -21.6%
15% -36.0% 27% -29.2%
20% -42.3% 24% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -11% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$72 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

612d coverage
Net worth$727
Realized−$2,549
Unrealized−$288
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses146 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$152
Open positions18
Markets (closed)378 / 396
History coverage612d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 378 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $202 $200 −$2 (-1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 8¢ $305 $158 −$147 (-48%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $61 $62 +$1 (+1%)
Will Starmer say "Condolences" during the next PMQ? No 86¢ 52¢ $100 $61 −$39 (-39%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $52 $53 +$1 (+1%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $67 $46 −$21 (-32%)
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $67 $34 −$33 (-49%)
Will Ariana Grande officially release Petal by July 31, 2026? Yes 95¢ 89¢ $27 $25 −$2 (-6%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-5%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-10%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-86%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $36 $1 −$35 (-97%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 19 $165 +$21 +12%
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $25 −$8 -31%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $15 −$7 -49%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $50 −$17 -34%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 17 $1,105 −$601 -54%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 17 $50 −$2 -5%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $300 −$6 -2%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 17 $238 +$1,144 +480%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 17 $846 −$430 -51%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 16 $465 −$465 -100%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $1,648 −$786 -48%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $15 −$5 -36%
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? Jun 15 $6 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $133 +$180 +136%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $865 −$138 -16%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $25 −$3 -12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 15 $35 −$5 -15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $50 −$6 -11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $175 −$18 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $165 −$83 -50%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $616 +$37 +6%
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Jun 15 $87 $0 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 15 $50 −$18 -35%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $724 −$557 -77%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $665 −$141 -21%
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $29 +$32 +113%
Will Drake attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $70 +$10 +15%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 15 $100 −$10 -10%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 15 $862 −$309 -36%
Will Lady Gaga attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $61 +$16 +26%
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Jun 15 $36 −$16 -44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$13 +67%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $10 +$12 +120%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 14 $18 −$6 -33%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $35 −$5 -14%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $101 +$14 +13%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $20 +$4 +20%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $18 −$3 -16%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$11 -55%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $71 −$6 -9%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 −$7 -66%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $25 −$2 -10%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $1,177 −$687 -58%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $73 −$15 -20%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $18 −$14 -79%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $844 +$50 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $25 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $62 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $53 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $207 1h
Will Starmer say "Condolences" during the next PMQ? BUY No 86¢ $101 30h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $67 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $182 3d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $17 4d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $90 4d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $75 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $172 4d
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $25 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $220 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 4d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $33 5d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $264 5d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $50 5d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $240 5d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 73¢ $48 5d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 5d
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $294 5d
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $300 5d
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $969 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $726.73 · official $726.73 (match) · 1776 history records