Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:29:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

37
0x3789…2769
crypto · 948 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2,013 -38%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,015 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13
Realized−$2,015
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses488 / 670
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1158 / 948
History coverage73d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 1158 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,113
7 days−$2,113
14 days−$2,113
30 days−$2,113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 52¢ 58¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+12%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 51¢ 72¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+40%)
Solana Up or Down - April 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 51¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+95%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 40¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+150%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 5, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 1, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 2, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 30, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 30, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$10 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 30, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 30, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 30, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$16 -202%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$16 -202%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$18 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$16 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 30, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 30, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 30, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$9 -202%
Solana Up or Down - March 30, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$10 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$10 -200%
XRP Up or Down - March 30, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 30, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$16 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 30, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$16 -202%
XRP Up or Down - March 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$13 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$10 -200%
XRP Up or Down - March 30, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 30, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$10 -201%
XRP Up or Down - March 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$12 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$533
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $8 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $9 7m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 8m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $8 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $2 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $0 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $3 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $9 13m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $11 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $9 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $13 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $10 20m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $3 21m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $9 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $9 24m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $11 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $11 34m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $12 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 447 -48.1% -53.1% 26% 26% -42.0%
≤30d 447 -48.1% -53.1% 26% 26% -42.0%
≤90d 1158 -15.8% -23.8% 42% 41% -23.8%
all 1158 -15.8% -23.8% 42% 41% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 41% -23.8%
10% -31.1% 40% -31.1%
15% -37.8% 37% -37.8%
20% -43.9% 34% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.56 · official $12.80 (match) · 3500 history records