Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3785…f577 sports 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$11 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate69%66W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$7
14 days−$122
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$138
other 43% +$128
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +11.6% +0.9% 84% 74% -8.9%
≤30d 96 -1.8% -11.2% 69% 65% -9.7%
≤90d 96 -1.8% -11.2% 69% 65% -9.7%
all 96 -1.8% -11.2% 69% 65% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 65% -9.7%
10% -19.7% 47% -18.4%
15% -27.4% 29% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 25% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$28 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses66 / 30
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)96 / 98
History coverage26d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? No 80¢ 80¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-1%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Cincinnati Reds 36¢ 34¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $45 +$9 +20%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $45 +$9 +20%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $58 +$17 +29%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $55 +$9 +16%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $57 +$14 +24%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 18 $7 +$17 +238%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $45 −$45 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $47 +$6 +13%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $59 +$14 +25%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $47 +$6 +12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $47 +$9 +18%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $58 +$16 +27%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $60 +$19 +32%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $48 +$8 +17%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $57 −$57 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $47 +$9 +18%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $47 +$3 +6%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $45 +$14 +31%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $46 +$5 +11%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $3 +$2 +52%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $3 +$2 +52%
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $47 −$46 -99%
Modena: Tamara Zidansek vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 11 $6 −$6 -99%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $6 −$6 -99%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 11 $6 −$6 -99%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bratislava: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Alexander Donski Jun 10 $5 +$1 +26%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Joaquin Aguilar Jun 09 $3 +$2 +61%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Ognjen Milic Jun 09 $6 +$1 +26%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Pavel Kotov Jun 09 $6 +$2 +29%
Cattolica: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Matej Dodig Jun 09 $6 +$3 +52%
Ilkley: Harry Wendelken vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 08 $6 +$3 +55%
Lyon: Hugo Grenier vs Luca Van Assche Jun 08 $5 +$1 +23%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $35 $0 +1%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 08 $6 −$6 -99%
Lyon: Luka Pavlovic vs Daniel Galan Jun 08 $6 −$6 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $48 −$48 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $35 +$33 +97%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $35 +$20 +57%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 04 $3 +$3 +83%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $21 +$17 +83%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $36 −$35 -99%
Birmingham: James McCabe vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 03 $6 +$3 +50%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Eu Jun 02 $3 +$2 +70%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $4 +$3 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 36¢ $28 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $58 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 76¢ $45 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $45 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $45 2d
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Kyrian Jacquet 29¢ $7 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 77¢ $58 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $55 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $57 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 79¢ $14 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $47 6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $45 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $47 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 84¢ $47 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 78¢ $58 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $57 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $13 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $13 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $48 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 82¢ $47 8d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $48 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $47 8d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $47 8d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $45 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 8d
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY Anubis Gaming 65¢ $3 9d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia BUY Top Esports Challenger 65¢ $3 9d
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 67¢ $12 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.90 · official $83.66 (match) · 172 history records