Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:38:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3782…6e90 world 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate42%22W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$2
other 31% +$17
politics 12% −$1
sports 10% +$15
economics 8% $0
crypto 1% −$41
finance 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.0% -10.4% 17% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 26 +0.6% -8.9% 35% 4% -9.5%
≤90d 39 +0.4% -9.1% 31% 3% -9.5%
all 52 +1.6% -8.1% 42% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 6% -9.8%
10% -16.9% 4% -18.4%
15% -24.9% 4% -26.3%
20% -32.3% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses22 / 30
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage490d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $23 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 22 $10 −$1 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $71 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $42 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $20 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $57 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $7 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $42 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 03 $26 −$1 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $40 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $6 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $43 −$2 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $43 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $18 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $74 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $14 +$3 +22%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $40 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 22 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 22 $35 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $336 $0 -0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 27 $38 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $251 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $228 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $229 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 18 $229 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 17 $252 −$1 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 23 $4 $0 -3%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 11-17? Mar 18 $41 −$41 -100%
India wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 17 $41 $0 +1%
China wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 13 $41 $0 +1%
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in February? Mar 13 $29 +$16 +54%
Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 28 - March 7? Mar 11 $27 +$2 +6%
Will Trump's joint address to Congress be less than 50 min? Mar 06 $7 −$1 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $39 55m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $39 2h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 7h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 9h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 10h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 10h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 10h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $18 11h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $18 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $10 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $10 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $35 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $18 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $17 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $39 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $39 4d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $39 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $39 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $19 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $19 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $16 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $12 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $8 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $36 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $40 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $40 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $37 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $36 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $38 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $38 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.85 · official $0.00 (match) · 171 history records