Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:39:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x377f…4f8a sports 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$24 (+14%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate54%19W / 16L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 54% +$3
sports 28% −$6
crypto 17% +$23
other 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -23.3% -30.6% 38% 29% -25.8%
≤30d 24 -23.3% -30.6% 38% 29% -25.8%
≤90d 35 -15.2% -23.3% 54% 23% +2.8%
all 35 -15.2% -23.3% 54% 23% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 23% +2.8%
10% -30.7% 23% -7.0%
15% -37.4% 23% -16.0%
20% -43.5% 23% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses19 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)35 / 49
History coverage68d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Roar Gaming 60¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Cloud Rising 63¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+58%)
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group D ODDIK 65¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs TDK 60¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) G2 53¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Clutchain 67¢ 67¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) XLG Gaming 58¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs MARKandLARRY 62¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group D ALKA 64¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 58¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs 100 Thieves 57¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Nuclear TigeRES 53¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Gentle Mates 52¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) Yakult Brothers 56¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Roar Gaming 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 $0 -7%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$1 -41%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $1 +$1 +124%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$1 -36%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$2 +99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (+1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -17%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $2 +$2 +90%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 +$1 +62%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 11? May 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 18? Apr 19 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on April 18? Apr 19 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 16? Apr 17 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 15 Apr 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C or higher on April 14 Apr 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on April 14? Apr 14 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 13? Apr 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 13? Apr 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 12? Apr 12 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Apr 09 $28 +$23 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY XLG Gaming 58¢ $1 8m
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 63¢ $1 23m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 52¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A BUY ALKA 64¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 62¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 57¢ $1 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 53¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 64¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 60¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 64¢ $1 1h
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) BUY Yakult Brothers 56¢ $1 2h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 60¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 53¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 58¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 67¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 53¢ $1 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $1 10h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof BUY ReThink 52¢ $1 10h
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY RisingRage 62¢ $1 10h
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 84¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Infinite 44¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A BUY ODDIK 65¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 77¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 41¢ $1 13h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 62¢ $1 13h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 63¢ $1 14h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 48¢ $1 14h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 53¢ $1 15h
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (+1.5) BUY Team Nemesis 99¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.44 · official $16.44 (match) · 84 history records