Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:30:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
37 0x377a…7dc7 sports 192 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$152 (-1%) realized −$209 · open +$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate93%178W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$321now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$120
7 days+$85
14 days+$277
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$72
other 7% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +1.8% -7.9% 97% 7% -8.1%
≤30d 159 -0.2% -9.7% 93% 8% -9.8%
≤90d 191 -0.6% -10.1% 93% 7% -10.3%
all 191 -0.6% -10.1% 93% 7% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 7% -10.3%
10% -18.7% 3% -18.9%
15% -26.6% 2% -26.7%
20% -33.8% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$74 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$321
Realized−$209
Unrealized+$57
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses178 / 13
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)191 / 192
History coverage38d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 81¢ $264 $321 +$57 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $184 +$82 +45%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $179 +$6 +3%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $169 +$10 +6%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $239 +$7 +3%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $227 +$15 +6%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $115 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $218 +$7 +3%
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs SHISHKA (+1.5) Jun 19 $179 +$2 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $37 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $207 +$8 +4%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $44 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $161 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 19 $203 +$2 +1%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $130 +$4 +3%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $190 +$8 +4%
Counter-Strike: NAVI Junior vs WeClear - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $192 −$192 -100%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $169 +$35 +21%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $334 +$3 +1%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $335 +$10 +3%
Valorant: Fancy United vs TrinitY - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $329 +$6 +2%
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Prestige - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $6 $0 +5%
Valorant: Chivas Esports vs LYON - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $213 +$7 +3%
Counter-Strike: Sangal ALTERS vs WBT Academy (BO3) - ESEA European Fin Jun 17 $160 +$5 +3%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 17 $114 +$11 +10%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $194 +$6 +3%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $287 +$12 +4%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $279 +$8 +3%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 16 $17 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $261 +$17 +6%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $241 +$21 +8%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $102 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $227 +$12 +5%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $214 +$13 +6%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $210 +$4 +2%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $203 +$6 +3%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 13 $195 +$10 +5%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $193 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Dripmen - Map 3 Winner Jun 13 $186 +$7 +4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $184 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $132 +$52 +40%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs STATE (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A Jun 12 $131 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $130 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $127 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $16 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $124 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $118 +$7 +6%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $98 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $87 +$10 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $267 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 84¢ $267 16h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 57¢ $184 17h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 97¢ $7 23h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 97¢ $134 23h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 97¢ $19 23h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 97¢ $19 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $179 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 94¢ $74 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 94¢ $16 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 94¢ $29 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 94¢ $49 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $246 26h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 97¢ $239 26h
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner SELL Phantom 99¢ $241 47h
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Phantom 93¢ $227 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $117 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 98¢ $20 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 98¢ $95 3d
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL CYBERSHOKE Esports 100¢ $225 3d
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 97¢ $218 3d
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs SHISHKA (+1.5) SELL K27 100¢ $181 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $37 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $37 3d
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs SHISHKA (+1.5) BUY K27 99¢ $179 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL KOLESIE 100¢ $216 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY KOLESIE 96¢ $15 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY KOLESIE 96¢ $134 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY KOLESIE 96¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY KOLESIE 96¢ $48 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $321.11 · official $317.21 · 549 history records