Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:48:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
37 0x377a…fe35 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5 (-2%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$4
crypto 24% +$1
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-43.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -46.5% -51.6% 43% 7% -11.4%
≤30d 16 -37.1% -43.1% 44% 12% -11.1%
≤90d 16 -37.1% -43.1% 44% 12% -11.1%
all 16 -37.1% -43.1% 44% 12% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.1% 12% -11.1%
10% -48.5% 12% -19.6%
15% -53.5% 6% -27.4%
20% -58.0% 6% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -55% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage9d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $26 +$2 +7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 +$1 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 $0 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 95¢ $25 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 6h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 18h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 18h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $35 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 98¢ $25 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 9d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records