Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:49:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
37 0x3776…e17a sports 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$169 (+6%) realized +$143 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%24W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$188
14 days+$175
30 days+$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$164
other 8% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +31.3% +18.8% 64% 64% +21.2%
≤30d 24 -1.7% -11.1% 46% 46% +1.9%
≤90d 57 -0.3% -9.8% 42% 40% -4.7%
all 57 -0.3% -9.8% 42% 40% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 40% -4.7%
10% -18.4% 40% -13.8%
15% -26.3% 33% -22.1%
20% -33.5% 26% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$29 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized+$143
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses24 / 33
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage67d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score No 66¢ 86¢ $87 $112 +$26 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $60 +$21 +34%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $52 +$52 +101%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $34 +$64 +188%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $41 +$52 +125%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 15 $44 +$57 +128%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $71 +$42 +60%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $81 +$21 +26%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $60 −$59 -99%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $47 −$47 -99%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) Jun 12 $58 −$10 -18%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $60 −$3 -5%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 07 $51 +$49 +95%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BetBoom Team (-3.5) vs GamerLegion (+3.5) Jun 06 $63 +$49 +78%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1? Jun 06 $39 −$38 -98%
Valorant: SwimTrek Blue vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Cha Jun 05 $39 −$38 -98%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Seri Jun 05 $32 −$31 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $59 −$59 -99%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playoffs Jun 03 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series G Jun 03 $52 +$53 +103%
Map Handicap: UNiTY (-1.5) vs LPH Gaming (+1.5) Jun 02 $42 +$61 +143%
Map Handicap: OX (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) Jun 01 $30 −$30 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $21 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Ch May 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Lavked (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage May 16 $75 −$73 -98%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Project Notorious - Game 1 Winner May 15 $148 +$43 +29%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Galions (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier May 15 $114 +$52 +46%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 15 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: GIANTX vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoff May 14 $85 +$79 +93%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) May 14 $65 −$5 -8%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs TNC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage May 13 $71 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: Haunted House vs Change The Game (BO3) - Asian Champio May 13 $62 +$92 +149%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs paiN Academy (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group May 13 $124 +$30 +24%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 12 $91 −$90 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 11 $14 +$46 +344%
Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 2? May 10 $57 −$56 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1? May 10 $53 +$78 +145%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2? May 09 $41 +$58 +140%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - BC Game Mas May 08 $63 −$62 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S May 08 $79 −$30 -38%
T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final: Cook Islan May 07 $1 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Gro May 07 $45 −$44 -99%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 May 06 $40 +$40 +101%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 05 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Group St May 05 $17 −$2 -10%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ASTRAL (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Ser May 05 $18 −$1 -4%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 05 $17 $0 -0%
Jiujiang: Giles Hussey vs Jason Jung Apr 29 $57 +$25 +43%
Counter-Strike: Reign Above vs Marsborne - Map 1 Winner Apr 26 $60 −$12 -20%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Game Hunters (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Apr 26 $13 +$6 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $4 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $84 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs SELL TDK 100¢ $81 17h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY TDK 74¢ $60 23h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $103 41h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $52 43h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 34¢ $34 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $93 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 44¢ $1 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 44¢ $4 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 44¢ $15 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 44¢ $2 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 44¢ $15 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 44¢ $4 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Corners SELL Under 100¢ $101 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Under 43¢ $44 3d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Top Esports Challenger 97¢ $114 3d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 60¢ $71 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $102 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 79¢ $81 4d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY Virtus.pro 60¢ $60 5d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner BUY Los Angeles Thieves 63¢ $47 5d
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies - Map 2 Winner BUY Atputies 8¢ $5 5d
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) SELL INOX Division 50¢ $48 6d
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) BUY INOX Division 59¢ $58 7d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 52¢ $57 7d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 53¢ $60 7d
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group SELL Walczaki 99¢ $100 11d
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group BUY Walczaki 50¢ $51 11d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BetBoom Team (-3.5) vs GamerLegion (+3.5) SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $112 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.35 · official $112.35 (match) · 104 history records