Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:20:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3773…f0dd weather 981 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$5,840 (-1%) realized +$4,817 · open −$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate99%859W / 6L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$515per market
Trades / day109.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$55,886now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$351
14 days+$634
30 days+$4,817
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$4,818
other 0% −$46
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% −$23
politics 0% $0
sports 0% +$11
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 245 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 865 +3.9% -6.0% 99% 2% -8.6%
≤90d 865 +3.9% -6.0% 99% 2% -8.6%
all 865 +3.9% -6.0% 99% 2% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover109.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.0% 2% -8.6%
10% -15.0% 2% -17.3%
15% ← realistic here -23.2% 1% -25.3%
20% -30.7% 1% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$568) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×91.29 per $1 lost it wins $91.29
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$55,886
Realized+$4,817
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses859 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions118
Markets (closed)865 / 981
History coverage24d
Avg bet$515
Trades / day109.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 118 History 865 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,967 $3,972 +$6 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,990 $2,992 +$3 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,092 $2,092 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,898 $1,900 +$3 (+0%)
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $1,886 $1,878 −$8 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,819 $1,822 +$3 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on June 16? No 99¢ 98¢ $1,414 $1,397 −$17 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,265 $1,268 +$3 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C or higher on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,234 $1,234 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,159 $1,160 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,152 $1,154 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,056 $1,057 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $902 $901 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 81°F or below on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $890 $891 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 88°F or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $816 $817 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $798 $798 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $771 $771 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $755 $763 +$8 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $750 $757 +$7 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $721 $721 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $690 $691 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $680 $682 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $619 $621 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $581 $582 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $574 $575 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $576 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $687 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $311 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $311 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $407 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $799 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 29°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $271 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $364 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $334 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $334 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $467 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $308 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $251 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $407 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $834 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $570 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? Jun 14 $285 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June Jun 14 $7,390 +$12 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 14 $1,768 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 1 Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June Jun 14 $3,896 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on June Jun 14 $480 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 85°F or below on June 13? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on June 13 Jun 14 $232 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 104°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $215 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $537 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $323 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $111 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $396 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $191 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,292 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,212 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $391 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3,156 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $422 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4,032 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $1,045 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3,603 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $407 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $422 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $308 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $298 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $569 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 13? Jun 13 $135 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $417 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,337 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $865 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 80¢ $4 19m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $69 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $194 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 73°F or below on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $189 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $171 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 88°F or higher on Jun BUY No 100¢ $816 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $207 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 100¢ $140 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 100¢ $140 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 100¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 100¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 100¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 98¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 98¢ $173 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 98¢ $196 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? SELL No 95¢ $143 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $7 6h
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 6h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? SELL No 95¢ $11 8h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $20 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55,886.14 · official $55,885.30 (match) · 3500 history records