Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:47:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.0
score
37 0x3771…5023 other 108 markets active 0h ago coverage 116d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL +$2,077 (+24%) realized +$1,966 · open +$111
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip
Net edge+37%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%30W / 75L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$611now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$125
7 days−$501
14 days+$2,928
30 days+$2,928
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$646
sports 37% −$1,176
world 6% +$2,579
crypto 2% +$344
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+37.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -16.0% -24.0% 15% 15% -28.7%
≤30d 79 +74.3% +57.7% 25% 25% +30.8%
≤90d 104 +53.1% +38.5% 29% 28% +15.7%
all 105 +51.7% +37.2% 29% 28% +15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.2% 28% +15.5%
10% +24.1% 27% +4.5%
15% +12.1% 26% -5.6%
20% +1.1% 26% -14.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +73% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$263 vs −$75 · ×3.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$611
Realized+$1,966
Unrealized+$111
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses30 / 75
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions3
Markets (closed)105 / 108
History coverage116d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $200 $300 +$100 (+50%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $200 $187 −$13 (-7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $100 $124 +$24 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 24 $154 +$409 +265%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $154 −$136 -88%
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $102 +$151 +148%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $202 −$15 -7%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $101 −$5 -5%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 +$71 +140%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $154 −$150 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $203 −$200 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $51 +$574 +1116%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 +$343 +666%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 +$202 +982%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $205 −$146 -72%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $103 +$806 +785%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 +$574 +1116%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $82 −$80 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $92 −$90 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? SELL Yes 42¢ $563 8m
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? SELL Yes 2¢ $18 21m
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 7¢ $206 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 11¢ $154 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 16¢ $154 1h
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 24h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 25h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 25h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 25h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 27h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 27h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $102 28h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 84¢ $253 30h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 31h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 4d
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 6d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 57¢ $188 6d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 61¢ $96 6d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 6d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 6d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $154 6d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $101 6d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $202 6d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $610.65 · official $653.51 · 150 history records