Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:05:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
37 0x3771…1c37 crypto 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate53%24W / 21L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% −$1
crypto 19% −$2
other 15% −$1
finance 13% −$1
economics 13% −$1
sports 13% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 2 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 45 -2.6% -11.9% 53% 22% -9.6%
all 45 -2.6% -11.9% 53% 22% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 22% -9.6%
10% -20.3% 2% -18.3%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses24 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage70d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $11 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 28 $11 $0 -1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? Apr 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in April? Apr 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $95 on April 10? Apr 11 $10 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? Apr 11 $100 $0 -0%
USD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 11 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 11? Apr 11 $100 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 11 $663 −$1 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Apr 11 $664 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 10 $1 $0 +13%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 10 $665 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 11? Apr 10 $666 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $666 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $667 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 10 $669 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 07 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 07 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 07 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 07 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 07 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 07 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 07 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 07 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 07 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 07 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 07 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 07 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 07 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 07 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 07 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 07 $1 $0 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 1h
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $11 19d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $11 19d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 SELL No 100¢ $5 38d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $5 38d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? SELL No 99¢ $11 51d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $11 51d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in April? SELL No 99¢ $5 66d
Will Solana reach $95 on April 10? SELL No 99¢ $10 66d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? SELL No 99¢ $100 66d
USD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $100 66d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 11? SELL No 100¢ $100 66d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in April? BUY No 99¢ $5 66d
Will Solana reach $95 on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $10 66d
USD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $100 66d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? BUY No 99¢ $100 66d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 11? BUY No 100¢ $100 66d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $663 66d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $663 66d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? SELL No 100¢ $663 66d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? BUY No 100¢ $664 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 66d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $664 66d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $665 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $665 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $666 66d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $666 66d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $666 66d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $666 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 111 history records