Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:19:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3771…ac20 crypto 24 markets active 15d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (1459 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$21,568 (+44%) realized +$21,568 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +103% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +41% what you keep after slip
Net edge+41%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$2,039per market
Trades / day1459.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$252
crypto 47% +$21,091
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1459 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+83.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 24 +103.0% +83.7% 54% 50% +7.1%
≤90d 24 +103.0% +83.7% 54% 50% +7.1%
all 24 +103.0% +83.7% 54% 50% +7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1459.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +83.7% 50% +7.1%
10% +66.1% 46% -3.2%
15% ← realistic here +50.0% 42% -12.5%
20% +35.3% 33% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +103% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,311) neutral
Persistence
early +204% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
60.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,684 vs −$1,232 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.57 per $1 lost it wins $2.57
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21,568
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2,039
Trades / day1459.0
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $517 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $1,374 −$1,374 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $1,118 +$3,354 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $718 +$604 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $444 −$444 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $315 −$300 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $442 −$442 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $1,307 −$794 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $199 −$193 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $317 +$1,217 +384%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $316 +$33 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $1,349 −$1,311 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25,748 +$252 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $77 +$77 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $7,440 −$7,439 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $730 +$211 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $220 +$330 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $427 +$20,940 +4900%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $1,265 +$511 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $347 −$333 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $2,003 +$1,596 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $1,815 +$5,768 +318%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $423 −$422 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $517 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $27 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $104 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $299 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $27 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $7 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $7 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $22 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $12 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $9 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $12 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $44 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $9 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1475 history records