Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:15:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

37 0x376e…2e4c other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized +$0 · open −$15

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip

Net edge-3%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$203per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$1,183now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-2.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	1	+7.5%	-2.8%	100%	0%	-2.8%
≤90d	1	+7.5%	-2.8%	100%	0%	-2.8%
all	1	+7.5%	-2.8%	100%	0%	-2.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-2.8%	0%	-2.8%
10%	-12.1%	0%	-12.1%
15%	-20.6%	0%	-20.6%
20%	-28.3%	0%	-28.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +7% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage

Net worth$1,183

Realized+$0

Unrealized−$15

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions5

Markets (closed)1 / 6

History coverage20d

Avg bet$203

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	53¢	52¢	$400	$396	−$4 (-1%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	Bosnia and Herzegovina	65¢	64¢	$258	$256	−$2 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	25¢	24¢	$212	$208	−$4 (-2%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Yes	30¢	30¢	$188	$185	−$3 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	No	38¢	38¢	$140	$138	−$2 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	May 29	$1	$0	+8%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina	65¢	$18	1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina	65¢	$243	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	38¢	$143	1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	25¢	$217	1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$192	1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$406	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	SELL Up	70¢	$1	20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	BUY Up	62¢	$1	20d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,183.03 · official $1,183.03 (match) · 8 history records