Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:11:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x376d…6bcc crypto 377 markets active 5d ago coverage 407d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%93W / 284L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$21
14 days−$23
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$34
sports 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -21.2% -28.7% 19% 19% -27.3%
≤30d 325 -4.9% -13.9% 23% 23% -14.3%
≤90d 373 -3.5% -12.6% 25% 25% -12.5%
all 377 -3.7% -12.9% 25% 25% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 25% -12.7%
10% -21.2% 25% -21.1%
15% -28.8% 25% -28.7%
20% -35.8% 24% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$3 · ×2.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

407d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses93 / 284
Open positions0
Markets (closed)377 / 377
History coverage407d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 377 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$9 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$10 +379%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$9 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$9 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$9 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$9 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$9 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 03 $3 +$9 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 01 $3 +$9 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 01 $3 +$9 +312%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.00 · official $36.00 (match) · 788 history records