Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:37:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3762…ee20 crypto 1357 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$143 (-4%) realized −$143 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%595W / 762L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day39.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$2
14 days−$58
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$126
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 172 -0.5% -10.0% 87% 72% -9.3%
≤30d 495 -0.9% -10.3% 83% 72% -10.7%
≤90d 1357 -18.1% -25.9% 44% 40% -13.0%
all 1357 -18.1% -25.9% 44% 40% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.9% 40% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -33.0% 21% -21.3%
15% -39.4% 15% -28.9%
20% -45.4% 13% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$143
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses595 / 762
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1357 / 1357
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1357 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records