Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
37 0x3761…203c other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$112 (+2%) realized +$282 · open −$170
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$343per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$1,204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$905
sports 21% −$563
crypto 17% −$396
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +17.1% +6.0% 62% 38% -6.3%
≤30d 13 +17.1% +6.0% 62% 38% -6.3%
≤90d 13 +17.1% +6.0% 62% 38% -6.3%
all 13 +17.1% +6.0% 62% 38% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.0% 38% -6.3%
10% -4.2% 31% -15.3%
15% -13.4% 31% -23.5%
20% -21.9% 23% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$171 vs −$250 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1,204
Realized+$282
Unrealized−$170
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$343
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 59¢ 52¢ $1,179 $1,049 −$130 (-11%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Yes 29¢ 23¢ $195 $155 −$40 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $305 +$243 +80%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $802 +$349 +44%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $409 −$400 -98%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv Jun 16 $305 −$300 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $205 +$466 +227%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$279 +273%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $354 +$3 +1%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 15 $18 +$1 +8%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $103 +$10 +10%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 +$13 +13%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $889 −$396 -44%
Joventut vs. Valencia Jun 14 $10 −$4 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,194 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $199 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 88¢ $548 14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $305 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $802 23h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $409 25h
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 26¢ $102 26h
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 46¢ $203 26h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $671 45h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $205 47h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $381 47h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 64¢ $357 2d
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas SELL Fenerbahce 79¢ $20 2d
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Fenerbahce 72¢ $18 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $113 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $116 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $354 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $153 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $431 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 49¢ $472 3d
Joventut vs. Valencia SELL Joventut 8¢ $6 3d
Joventut vs. Valencia BUY Joventut 12¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $457 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,204.13 · official $1,204.13 (match) · 27 history records