Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:42:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

37 0x375a…94ba crypto 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 50d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$239 (+0%) realized +$242 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate95%20W / 1L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$2,908per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$4,998now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$36

7 days+$41

14 days+$88

30 days+$170

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-9.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+0.2%	-9.3%	100%	0%	-9.3%
≤30d	18	+0.4%	-9.2%	94%	0%	-9.2%
≤90d	21	+0.4%	-9.1%	95%	0%	-9.2%
all	21	+0.4%	-9.1%	95%	0%	-9.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-9.1%	0%	-9.2%
10% ← realistic here	-17.8%	0%	-17.9%
15%	-25.8%	0%	-25.8%
20%	-33.0%	0%	-33.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$5,000) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$0 · ×27.41 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×548.28 per $1 lost it wins $548.28

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage

Net worth$4,998

Realized+$242

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)95%

Wins / losses20 / 1

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Open positions1

Markets (closed)21 / 22

History coverage50d

Avg bet$2,908

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17?	No	100¢	100¢	$5,000	$4,997	−$3 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16?	Jun 16	$5,000	+$5	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15?	Jun 15	$5,072	+$9	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14?	Jun 15	$5,032	+$22	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10?	Jun 10	$5,000	+$5	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9?	Jun 09	$5,001	+$9	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8?	Jun 08	$5,001	+$9	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 1-7?	Jun 08	$3,697	+$18	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7?	Jun 08	$1,310	+$2	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7?	Jun 07	$1,309	+$1	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6?	Jun 06	$1,307	+$1	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5?	Jun 05	$1,306	+$1	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4?	Jun 04	$1,300	+$6	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2?	Jun 02	$2,132	+$2	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1?	Jun 01	$2,132	$0	-0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	Jun 01	$2,096	+$36	+2%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 18-24?	May 23	$2,084	+$12	+1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18?	May 18	$2,082	+$2	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17?	May 18	$2,052	+$31	+2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 4-10?	May 11	$2,032	+$19	+1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 April 27-May 3?	May 04	$2,031	+$2	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	May 01	$1,999	+$32	+2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17?	BUY No	100¢	$5,000	1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16?	BUY No	100¢	$5,000	30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15?	BUY No	100¢	$5,072	46h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14?	BUY No	100¢	$5,032	5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10?	BUY No	100¢	$5,000	7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9?	BUY No	100¢	$5,001	8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8?	BUY Yes	100¢	$3,000	8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8?	BUY Yes	100¢	$2,000	8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7?	BUY No	100¢	$1,310	9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7?	BUY No	100¢	$1,309	10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6?	BUY No	100¢	$1,307	11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5?	BUY No	100¢	$1,306	12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4?	BUY No	99¢	$1,300	12d
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 1-7?	BUY No	100¢	$1,564	13d
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 1-7?	BUY No	99¢	$2,134	14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2?	BUY No	100¢	$2,132	14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1?	SELL No	100¢	$2,132	15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1?	BUY No	100¢	$2,132	15d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	BUY No	98¢	$2,096	24d
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 18-24?	SELL No	100¢	$2,096	24d
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 18-24?	BUY No	99¢	$2,084	28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18?	BUY No	100¢	$2,082	29d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17?	BUY No	98¢	$2,052	35d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 4-10?	BUY No	99¢	$2,032	42d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 April 27-May 3?	BUY No	100¢	$2,031	46d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	BUY No	98¢	$1,999	50d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,997.50 · official $4,997.50 (match) · 45 history records