Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:26:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
37 0x3758…5c70 other 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+2%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate61%99W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$34
14 days+$34
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$13
crypto 29% −$22
sports 18% +$15
weather 1% −$1
world 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +87.1% +69.3% 78% 67% +18.4%
≤30d 37 +17.1% +6.0% 49% 32% -0.9%
≤90d 161 +0.8% -8.8% 61% 40% -9.0%
all 161 +0.8% -8.8% 61% 40% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 40% -9.0%
10% -17.5% 19% -17.7%
15% -25.5% 14% -25.7%
20% -32.8% 11% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses99 / 62
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)161 / 165
History coverage73d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 161 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $8 −$1 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $26 +$13 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $22 +$4 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $17 +$19 +111%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $27 −$24 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $6 +$6 +104%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $4 +$13 +374%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$4 +227%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $9 +$16 +168%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $12 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $23 −$8 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $9 −$8 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 31 $4 −$2 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? May 31 $3 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? May 30 $3 $0 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $2 +$5 +196%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $0 $0 +58%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $4 −$4 -93%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7AM ET May 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $1 +$4 +334%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6AM ET May 29 $1 +$1 +49%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Cameroon vs Mali May 29 $0 $0 -86%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 28 $3 $0 +5%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Derbyshire May 27 $3 $0 +2%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $4 −$1 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $1 $0 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 21 to May 23, 2026? May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 18 $2 $0 -9%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $9 +$1 +15%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $9 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 17 $11 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 16 $2 +$3 +172%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $6 +$4 +58%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $3 $0 +10%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants May 04 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $3 −$1 -26%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam May 04 $1 −$1 -76%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings May 03 $2 $0 +21%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 03 $3 −$2 -62%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals May 01 $3 +$1 +45%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 01 $1 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $26 9h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $26 28h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $22 28h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 31h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 31h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 31h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $17 31h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $14 32h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 43h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 43h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $7 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $6 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 4d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $6 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $20 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 648 history records