Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:37:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3756…f828 crypto 411 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,704 (-9%) realized −$3,173 · open −$531
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate58%239W / 171L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,016now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$951
14 days−$951
30 days−$951
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$3,191
sports 5% −$966
other 1% −$341
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 59 -22.5% -29.9% 41% 41% -31.7%
all 410 -0.9% -10.3% 58% 56% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 56% -18.9%
10% -18.9% 54% -26.6%
15% -26.7% 46% -33.7%
20% -33.9% 36% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$110 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$1,016
Realized−$3,173
Unrealized−$531
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses239 / 171
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)410 / 411
History coverage120d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 410 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 34¢ $1,546 $1,016 −$531 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 159 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $298 −$291 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $239 −$235 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $78 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 06 $496 −$481 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 06 $304 +$191 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 06 $300 −$288 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 06 $200 −$192 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 06 $454 +$350 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 06 $100 +$87 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 06 $100 +$89 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 06 $100 +$93 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 06 $100 +$93 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 06 $100 +$109 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 06 $100 +$137 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 06 $100 +$141 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 06 $200 −$192 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 06 $200 −$191 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 06 $97 −$92 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 06 $100 −$97 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 06 $100 −$97 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 06 $100 −$96 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 06 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 06 $200 +$171 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 06 $402 +$239 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 06 $200 −$193 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 06 $100 +$59 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 06 $100 +$67 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 06 $100 +$79 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 06 $100 +$82 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 06 $100 +$93 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 06 $200 +$98 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 06 $200 +$193 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 06 $186 −$178 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 06 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 06 $84 −$81 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 06 $100 −$96 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 06 $100 −$96 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 06 $100 −$96 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 06 $198 −$188 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 06 $100 −$94 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 05 $344 −$333 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 05 $200 −$190 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 05 $100 +$72 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 05 $174 +$172 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 05 $200 +$161 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 05 $200 +$186 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1,569 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $298 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $137 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $102 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $102 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $496 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $304 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $300 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $200 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $454 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $200 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $200 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $97 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $100 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $100 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $100 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $100 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $100 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $100 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $100 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $100 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $100 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $109 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $100 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,015.80 · official $1,076.44 · 994 history records