Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:25:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
37 0x3756…cffa crypto 368 markets active 1d ago coverage 389d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$92 (-1%) realized −$99 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate69%252W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$59
14 days−$40
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$6
world 2% −$83
sports 0% −$24
politics 0% −$1
tech 0% −$11
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -20.4% -28.0% 52% 48% -28.7%
≤30d 74 -3.5% -12.7% 69% 50% -13.2%
≤90d 210 -8.3% -17.1% 66% 47% -12.7%
all 367 -5.3% -14.3% 69% 48% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 48% -11.0%
10% -22.5% 29% -19.5%
15% -30.0% 19% -27.3%
20% -36.9% 12% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

389d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses252 / 115
Open positions1
Markets (closed)367 / 368
History coverage389d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 367 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? No 30¢ 62¢ $6 $13 +$7 (+108%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $18 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$3 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $62 −$14 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $7 +$13 +178%
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 10, 12PM ET? Jun 10 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin above 62,400 on June 10, 12PM ET? Jun 10 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$6 -62%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $42 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $18 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +28%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $17 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin above 60,600 on June 9, 1PM ET? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin above 60,800 on June 9, 1PM ET? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $22 +$10 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10AM ET Jun 09 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $69 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $29 −$21 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $27 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $32 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 08 $44 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $37 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3AM ET Jun 08 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$3 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12AM ET Jun 08 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 08 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY No 30¢ $7 33h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 78¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $18 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 11? BUY No 8¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 93¢ $5 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 84¢ $20 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? SELL No 97¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 10, 12PM ET? BUY No 86¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin above 62,400 on June 10, 12PM ET? BUY No 89¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.42 · official $13.42 (match) · 869 history records