Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:06:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3752…2f08 sports 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,578 (-26%) realized −$1,443 · open −$135
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$464per market
Trades / day58.4pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,031now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,315
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-57.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -52.9% -57.4% 33% 22% -38.0%
≤30d 9 -52.9% -57.4% 33% 22% -38.0%
≤90d 9 -52.9% -57.4% 33% 22% -38.0%
all 9 -52.9% -57.4% 33% 22% -38.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -57.4% 22% -38.0%
10% ← realistic here -61.5% 11% -44.0%
15% -65.2% 11% -49.4%
20% -68.6% 11% -54.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$263 vs −$328 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,031
Realized−$1,443
Unrealized−$135
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$464
Trades / day58.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Team Resilience 88¢ 100¢ $525 $596 +$72 (+14%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 63¢ 100¢ $222 $351 +$130 (+59%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 16¢ 20¢ $66 $83 +$17 (+25%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Yakult Brothers 64¢ 0¢ $354 $0 −$353 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $145 −$145 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $628 +$672 +107%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $303 +$13 +4%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $260 −$255 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $206 −$206 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $846 +$104 +12%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $480 −$480 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $450 −$450 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $433 −$433 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 13¢ $18 5m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 13¢ $1 5m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 13¢ $1 5m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 17¢ $4 5m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 17¢ $6 5m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 17¢ $37 5m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 93¢ $200 50m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 88¢ $100 51m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 85¢ $301 52m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 58¢ $12 55m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 58¢ $25 55m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 58¢ $58 55m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 37¢ $40 59m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 48¢ $102 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 43¢ $203 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 95¢ $300 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 91¢ $201 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 63¢ $20 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 63¢ $22 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 63¢ $179 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 90¢ $60 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 66¢ $194 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 66¢ $88 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 61¢ $115 2h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 27¢ $135 13h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 24¢ $10 13h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 34¢ $260 19h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 52¢ $206 20h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 76¢ $129 21h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 76¢ $11 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,031.05 · official $1,005.47 · 73 history records