Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:08:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
37 0x3752…8653 crypto 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate79%22W / 6L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$693per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$10
other 42% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 9 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 28 +0.1% -9.4% 79% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$2,890) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$204
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses22 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)28 / 32
History coverage214d
Avg bet$693
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $72 $72 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? Jun 25 $43 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 25 $53 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 25 $62 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on April 12? May 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 15 $162 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 10 $65 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 10 $68 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 10 $80 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 06 $213 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Feb 22 $2,918 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026? Feb 22 $2,915 +$3 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Feb 20 $2,918 −$3 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026? Feb 18 $2,890 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Feb 17 $2,921 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Feb 17 $2,924 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 16 $2,959 −$3 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 Feb 14 $67 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 Feb 14 $84 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? Feb 14 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 26? Feb 07 $16 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 27? Feb 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on January 28? Feb 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 27? Feb 07 $32 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Feb 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in January? Feb 07 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 27 $278 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $72 1h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 1h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 1h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $53 41d
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $43 41d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 41d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 41d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on April 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 76d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $162 76d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $80 111d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $65 111d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $68 111d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $213 123d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,918 123d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,918 123d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,918 123d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,915 125d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? SELL No 100¢ $2,915 125d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? BUY No 100¢ $2,918 127d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,890 127d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,890 127d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $2,918 127d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $2,921 128d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $2,921 128d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $2,924 128d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $2,924 128d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $2,927 131d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $32 131d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $67 138d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.93 · official $203.93 (match) · 62 history records