Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3752…9d56 crypto 245 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$405 (-1%) realized −$500 · open +$95
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate82%192W / 43L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$4,081now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$833
7 days+$326
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$188
other 41% −$352
sports 5% −$441
world 2% +$97
finance 0% +$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 53% 47% -3.9%
≤30d 19 +0.6% -9.0% 58% 47% -9.7%
≤90d 235 -3.0% -12.2% 82% 21% -11.4%
all 235 -3.0% -12.2% 82% 21% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 21% -11.4%
10% -20.6% 16% -19.9%
15% -28.3% 10% -27.6%
20% -35.3% 5% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$77 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$4,081
Realized−$500
Unrealized+$95
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses192 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions10
Markets (closed)235 / 245
History coverage90d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 86¢ $790 $860 +$70 (+9%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 76¢ $742 $804 +$62 (+8%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 64¢ $160 $635 +$475 (+297%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 46¢ $620 $455 −$165 (-27%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 36¢ 44¢ $342 $423 +$81 (+24%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 26¢ $710 $255 −$455 (-64%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ $126 $239 +$113 (+89%)
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 32¢ 23¢ $320 $230 −$90 (-28%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $168 $168 +$0 (+0%)
Will Emiliano Martínez win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $9 $12 +$4 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1,471 +$55 +4%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $309 −$277 -90%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $303 +$136 +45%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $265 −$45 -17%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $403 −$403 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $134 −$134 -100%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $700 +$300 +43%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $353 +$147 +42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $404 +$193 +48%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $370 +$556 +150%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $41 +$59 +146%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $178 +$49 +27%
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $484 −$389 -80%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $48 +$11 +24%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $202 +$5 +3%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $51 +$34 +67%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 10 $56 −$55 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 10 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $531 −$526 -99%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 04 $85 −$59 -70%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $151 −$123 -81%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 04 $65 −$65 -100%
Will CA River Plate vs. CA Tucumán end in a draw? May 04 $22 −$22 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 May 04 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $101 +$87 +86%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Parma Calcio 1913: Both Teams to Score May 03 $75 +$25 +33%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $240 +$60 +25%
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 May 03 $25 $0 +0%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 03 $446 +$47 +10%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $140 +$67 +48%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? Apr 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 Apr 28 $29 −$29 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 28 $100 −$45 -45%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $361 +$26 +7%
Will Chelsea win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? Apr 26 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $375 +$7 +2%
Will Leeds United AFC win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? Apr 26 $9 −$3 -27%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $54 −$36 -67%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $353 +$186 +53%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Apr 25 $8 +$2 +26%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? Apr 25 $162 +$23 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $107 +$48 +44%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $93 +$4 +4%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 23 $219 −$3 -1%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $42 +$28 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $1,526 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $32 3h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $43 4h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 4h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $119 4h
Will Emiliano Martínez win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 4h
Will Emiliano Martínez win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 17¢ $0 4h
Will Emiliano Martínez win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 17¢ $8 5h
Will Emiliano Martínez win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 17¢ $0 5h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $83 14h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $13 14h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 15h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 15h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $45 15h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $54 15h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 15h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 15h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 15h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 15h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 15h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 15h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $303 18h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 41h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 41h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $46 41h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 41h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 41h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $213 41h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 72¢ $403 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,081.34 · official $4,081.34 (match) · 1040 history records