Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:53:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3751…aa54 world 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate45%22W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$3
other 36% +$4
sports 19% −$11
finance 3% $0
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.0% -9.5% 43% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 27 +0.8% -8.8% 52% 4% -8.9%
≤90d 48 +0.5% -9.1% 46% 6% -9.1%
all 49 -1.5% -10.9% 45% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 6% -9.5%
10% -19.4% 6% -18.1%
15% -27.2% 4% -26.1%
20% -34.4% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses22 / 27
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage490d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $46 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $27 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $18 +$1 +5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $84 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $4 $0 -9%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $44 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $102 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $33 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $99 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $86 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $38 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $34 +$1 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $38 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $36 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $37 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $76 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $19 +$5 +24%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $78 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 26 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $70 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $73 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $80 −$6 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $3 +$2 +66%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $3 $0 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $43 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $5 +$2 +37%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $10 −$1 -10%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $274 +$2 +1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $273 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $273 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $273 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $56 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $300 $0 +0%
Towson vs. Elon Mar 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $46 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $46 6h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $46 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 42h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $27 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $27 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $19 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $13 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $29 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $39 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $15 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $30 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $45 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $3 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $4 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 62¢ $37 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 62¢ $37 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $8 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $8 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.77 · official $45.82 (match) · 190 history records