Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:30:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
37 0x374b…046d sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$181 (+23%) realized +$183 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$296
14 days+$294
30 days+$294
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$224
other 21% +$51
crypto 6% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +12.7% +2.0% 43% 43% +29.2%
≤30d 15 +11.6% +1.0% 40% 40% +26.4%
≤90d 15 +11.6% +1.0% 40% 40% +26.4%
all 15 +11.6% +1.0% 40% 40% +26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.0% 40% +26.4%
10% -8.7% 40% +14.3%
15% -17.5% 40% +3.3%
20% -25.6% 33% -6.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$9 · ×7.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.73 per $1 lost it wins $4.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$183
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage9d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 49¢ 48¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $1 $0 -7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $101 −$2 -2%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $106 +$120 +114%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $51 −$3 -6%
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $101 +$55 +55%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $101 +$74 +73%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $48 +$73 +152%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $48 −$2 -5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 23 $46 +$18 +38%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $20 +$33 +165%
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? Jun 20 $48 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 SELL Under 33¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Under 34¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 73¢ $99 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $226 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $106 8h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $48 26h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 26h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $51 26h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 64¢ $101 3d
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $101 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $48 5d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 53¢ $45 5d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $48 5d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $20 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 56¢ $20 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $46 9d
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? SELL Yes 62¢ $46 9d
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? BUY Yes 63¢ $48 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.22 · official $53.22 (match) · 29 history records