Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:59:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

37
0x374a…c231
other · 338 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$240 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$254 · open −$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$446
Realized−$254
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses84 / 347
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions95
Markets (closed)431 / 338
History coverage68d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day49.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%
Chart Positions 95 History 431 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$283
7 days−$283
14 days−$232
30 days−$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $139 $131 −$9 (-6%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $24 $35 +$11 (+49%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 23¢ 27¢ $21 $25 +$4 (+17%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $17 $22 +$5 (+31%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 55¢ 57¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+5%)
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $16 $15 −$2 (-9%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+21%)
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $10 $12 +$3 (+27%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Las Vegas Raiders next? Yes 0¢ 76¢ $0 $12 +$12 (+37750%)
Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13 $12 −$2 (-12%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 47¢ 67¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+45%)
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-12%)
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $3 $7 +$5 (+171%)
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $9 $7 −$1 (-17%)
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $10 $7 −$4 (-37%)
Will England be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? No 60¢ 86¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+42%)
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 92¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 28¢ 17¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-40%)
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $19 $5 −$14 (-76%)
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $9 $4 −$5 (-55%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Raphinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+22%)
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 13 $0 $0 +174%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 men's singles tournament at the Miam Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Germany win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Sri Lanka win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will USA win Pool B at the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Rockets vs. Bulls Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 13 $2 +$4 +150%
Will MOUZ win PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Pr Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -104%
Will Canada win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Jun 13 $8 −$6 -75%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Pri Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-11? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Scotland win the 2026 Six Nations championship? Jun 13 $1 +$5 +395%
Will Panama win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Adam Scott win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 13 $0 $0 +47%
Miami Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda Jun 13 $10 −$20 -200%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 10? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -63%
Set Handicap: Siniakova (-1.5) vs Osorio (+1.5) Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will V.J. Edgecombe win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -172%
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-02-22? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Sweden be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donovan Clingan lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA s Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rudy Gobert win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
CA Tucumán vs. AA Estudiantes: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Seattle Kraken win the Pacific Division? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Korea win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 Six Nations championship? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Switzerland win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Women's Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Stuttgart win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Natus Vincere win the LEC 2026 Versus? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will William Poromaa (SWE) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026 Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
NCAA Tournament: No. 16 seed to pull off an upset? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -110%
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mika Vermuelen (AUT) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Buse vs. Dzumhur: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Normal Powell win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game MVP? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-11? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Finland win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -231%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 50% +$16
other 47% +$11
culture 1% −$14
politics 1% −$1
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2m
Will Scotland score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10m
Will Scotland score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11m
Will Scotland score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Will Scotland score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Will Scotland score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15m
Will Scotland score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15m
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 27m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 28m
Will Scotland score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 29m
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 32m
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $1 2h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $2 2h
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $5 2h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 3h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 171 -46.6% -51.6% 6% 6% -75.5%
≤30d 293 -5.7% -14.7% 18% 15% -28.2%
≤90d 431 -2.1% -11.4% 19% 17% -25.3%
all 431 -2.1% -11.4% 19% 17% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover49.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 17% -25.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 14% -32.4%
15% -27.6% 13% -39.0%
20% -34.7% 11% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $446.15 · official $445.79 (match) · 3500 history records