Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:20:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3749…8ef3 crypto 137 markets active 0h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
Total PnL −$1,243 (-4%) realized −$320 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%76W / 61L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$446
7 days+$390
14 days+$550
30 days+$550
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$320
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 +0.6% -9.0% 62% 59% -8.2%
≤30d 115 +1.9% -7.8% 63% 58% -7.8%
≤90d 115 +1.9% -7.8% 63% 58% -7.8%
all 137 -9.0% -17.7% 55% 51% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 51% -10.4%
10% -25.6% 43% -18.9%
15% -32.8% 35% -26.8%
20% -39.3% 25% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$156 vs −$200 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$320
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses76 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)137 / 137
History coverage145d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 137 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $308 −$308 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $307 +$157 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $306 +$117 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $409 +$142 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $309 +$223 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $925 +$474 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $410 +$213 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $618 −$120 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $206 +$140 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $722 +$120 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $409 −$315 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $307 +$86 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$66 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $1,033 −$754 -73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $204 −$47 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $521 +$701 +135%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $205 +$91 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $310 +$139 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $206 +$88 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$14 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $202 +$24 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $414 +$366 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $413 −$108 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $514 +$341 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $517 +$58 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $312 +$399 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $415 −$221 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $520 −$309 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $1,853 −$1,853 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $412 −$412 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $1,030 +$249 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $209 −$170 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $206 +$130 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $105 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $1,236 +$772 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $104 −$104 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $204 −$189 -92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $205 +$133 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $415 −$399 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $103 −$103 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $103 −$103 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $214 −$214 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $209 −$209 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $98 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $840 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $21 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1125 history records