Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:04:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3749…4094 other 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$812 (-14%) realized −$812 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate1%1W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$415
14 days−$551
30 days−$720
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$559
tech 14% −$271
economics 8% −$18
finance 3% −$7
sports 2% −$2
crypto 1% −$23
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -16.9% -24.8% 0% 0% -25.6%
≤30d 52 -14.8% -22.9% 2% 2% -24.1%
≤90d 71 -12.8% -21.1% 1% 1% -23.6%
all 71 -12.8% -21.1% 1% 1% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 1% -23.6%
10% -28.6% 1% -30.9%
15% -35.5% 1% -37.6%
20% -41.9% 0% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$13 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$812
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 70
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage50d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 52¢ 45¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 23 $211 −$4 -2%
Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 23 $130 −$5 -4%
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Jun 22 $271 −$14 -5%
Will Symbiotic launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $3 $0 -5%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO Jun 22 $2 $0 -10%
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 21 $99 −$8 -8%
Will Tori launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 20 $75 −$9 -12%
Will Concrete launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $59 −$9 -15%
Will Tori launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 20 $13 −$1 -10%
Will Puffpaw launch a token by March 31, 2027? Jun 20 $86 −$15 -17%
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 20 $252 −$16 -6%
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 20 $67 −$18 -27%
Will Surf launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 20 $50 −$10 -21%
Will Symbiotic launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 20 $5 $0 -9%
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 20 $22 −$3 -13%
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $6 $0 -5%
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 20 $132 −$24 -18%
Tabi FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 20 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Hurupay launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $19 −$5 -25%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on I Jun 20 $57 −$2 -3%
Will Hotstuff launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 20 $29 −$1 -3%
Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 20 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.75B and $2.0B at market c Jun 19 $116 −$115 -99%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on Jun 19 $87 −$87 -100%
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 19 $113 −$4 -4%
Will Puffpaw launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $91 −$39 -42%
GMGN FDV above $400M one day after launch Jun 18 $39 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da Jun 16 $92 −$2 -2%
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $162 −$21 -13%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 15 $95 −$15 -16%
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 15 $59 −$2 -4%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? Jun 15 $119 −$3 -2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 14 $92 −$5 -5%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 14 $49 −$5 -11%
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $372 −$81 -22%
Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 10 $12 −$2 -13%
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? Jun 09 $88 −$23 -26%
Hyperbeat FDV above $10M one day after launch? Jun 07 $45 −$8 -18%
Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 07 $23 −$2 -10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 05 $79 −$4 -5%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $22B and $25B at market close Jun 04 $84 −$2 -3%
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $3.25B and $3 Jun 03 $63 +$27 +42%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in June? Jun 03 $17 −$1 -3%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Jun 03 $56 −$2 -4%
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $2.75B and $3 Jun 03 $62 −$2 -3%
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? May 31 $126 −$33 -26%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $85 in May? May 31 $95 −$2 -2%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $315 in May? May 31 $24 −$15 -63%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $204 in May? May 31 $242 −$9 -4%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? May 28 $145 −$108 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $50 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 1h
Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 45¢ $13 1h
Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 47¢ $46 1h
Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 48¢ $21 1h
Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 49¢ $21 1h
Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 51¢ $23 1h
Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 52¢ $95 1h
Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 68¢ $59 7h
Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 66¢ $65 10h
Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 69¢ $130 10h
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? SELL No 55¢ $125 14h
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? BUY No 58¢ $135 14h
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? SELL Yes 39¢ $132 22h
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? BUY Yes 39¢ $137 22h
Will Symbiotic launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 23h
Will Symbiotic launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 23h
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO SELL Yes 37¢ $2 25h
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO BUY Yes 40¢ $2 25h
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 47¢ $91 2d
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 49¢ $99 2d
Will Tori launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 2d
Will Tori launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 2d
Will Tori launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 43¢ $6 2d
Will Concrete launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $3 2d
Will Concrete launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 2d
Will Concrete launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $5 2d
Will Concrete launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 2d
Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 43¢ $36 2d
Will Tori launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 45¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.69 · official $2.69 (match) · 294 history records