Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:27:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3747…85b4 world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 449d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate39%16W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$1
other 22% −$5
politics 5% +$1
crypto 4% $0
finance 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.6% -10.1% 17% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 15 -0.7% -10.2% 20% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 15 -0.7% -10.2% 20% 0% -9.7%
all 41 -2.6% -11.9% 39% 2% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 2% -10.4%
10% -20.3% 2% -19.0%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.8%
20% -35.1% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 59% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses16 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage449d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $32 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 +4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $7 $0 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $41 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $55 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $28 +$2 +8%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $39 $0 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $39 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $45 −$2 -5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $19 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $6 −$1 -11%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 24 $7 $0 +1%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? May 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Gujarat Titans win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 French Open? May 31 $12 −$3 -28%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 30 $21 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $190 and $200 on May 30? May 29 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 29 $18 $0 +0%
Solana above $200 on May 30? May 28 $9 $0 +1%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? May 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 21 $12 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 15 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 13 $12 −$1 -5%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 10 $13 −$1 -8%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose film tariff by Friday? May 09 $3 $0 +6%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 08 $1 $0 +23%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 07 $11 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in May? May 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $13 $0 +2%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $1 $0 +4%
Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 30 $14 $0 +1%
10-year Treasury yield below 4% before April? Mar 28 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 31m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 31m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $44 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $44 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $45 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $45 10h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 80¢ $3 17h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 80¢ $28 17h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $32 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $32 43h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $27 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $14 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $5 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $37 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $32 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $9 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $10 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $31 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $31 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $28 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.14 · official $14.14 (match) · 120 history records