Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:43:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3745…d860 other 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$65 (-0%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%19W / 110L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$21
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$28
politics 25% −$23
sports 22% −$10
crypto 9% −$9
economics 5% −$1
world 5% $0
finance 4% −$4
culture 1% −$2
tech 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.8% -10.3% 4% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 67 -1.0% -10.5% 7% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 109 -0.8% -10.3% 14% 0% -9.9%
all 129 -0.8% -10.2% 15% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses19 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage100d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $102 −$1 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $100 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $156 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $200 −$2 -1%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $28 −$1 -2%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $53 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 15 $46 −$2 -3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $51 $0 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $151 −$2 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $55 −$1 -2%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $63 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 13 $55 −$1 -2%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $62 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $223 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $57 $0 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $159 −$1 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $50 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 10 $64 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 10 $126 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $54 −$2 -3%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $47 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 09 $47 +$1 +2%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 07 $60 −$1 -1%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $54 $0 -0%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $53 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $67 $0 -1%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $37 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $284 −$1 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $162 +$1 +0%
Will Ro Khanna be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 03 $40 −$12 -30%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $44 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 03 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $101 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 02 $38 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $144 −$1 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $44 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $55 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $93 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $163 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $518 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $53 43m
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $8 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $56 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $64 5h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $50 5h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $51 13h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $39 14h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $39 18h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $47 19h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $47 24h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $58 24h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $58 29h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $48 30h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $48 34h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 92¢ $27 34h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $28 42h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 43h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $40 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $39 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $38 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 90¢ $45 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $46 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $50 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $51 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $44 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $44 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $49 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.63 · official $52.63 (match) · 489 history records