Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:45:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3744…c141 other 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 739d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$65,437 (-32%) realized −$69,340 · open +$3,903
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate13%9W / 59L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,974per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$850est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$9,077now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$464
14 days−$464
30 days+$1,594
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$38,515
sports 17% −$15,556
crypto 6% +$2,138
tech 5% −$10,502
politics 2% −$3,350
world 1% −$286
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.7% -13.7% 14% 0% -12.7%
≤30d 14 -2.7% -12.0% 21% 7% -4.8%
≤90d 47 +42.0% +28.5% 13% 6% -7.9%
all 68 +6.3% -3.8% 13% 6% -41.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.8% 6% -41.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.0% 4% -47.2%
15% -21.4% 4% -52.3%
20% -29.1% 4% -57.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$3,295) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -46% → late +59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$733 vs −$1,392 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

739d coverage
Net worth$9,077
Realized−$69,340
Unrealized+$3,903
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses9 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$850
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage739d
Avg bet$2,974
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 20¢ $5,174 $9,077 +$3,903 (+75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 20 $121 +$1 +1%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $28 −$6 -21%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2,701 −$16 -1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $290 −$7 -3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $827 −$13 -2%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $82 −$2 -2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9,000 −$421 -5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $11,750 +$2,147 +18%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $8 $0 -2%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $3,837 +$43 +1%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $764 −$45 -6%
Will Al Hazem SC win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $566 −$79 -14%
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $462 −$7 -2%
Will Al Kholood Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $35 $0 -1%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 21 $1 $0 -10%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $16 $0 -2%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1 $0 -82%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $2 −$1 -43%
Will Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? May 14 $9 $0 -2%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $1,755 −$35 -2%
Will Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? May 13 $689 −$31 -4%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $1,038 +$30 +3%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $700 −$61 -9%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $7 $0 -2%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $25 −$1 -2%
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. Elche CF end in a draw? May 12 $3,296 −$64 -2%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 12 $21 −$8 -40%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC end in a draw? May 11 $6 $0 -1%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $5,615 −$227 -4%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $15 $0 -2%
Will SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? May 11 $25 −$1 -2%
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $934 −$47 -5%
Will Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 10 $0 +$1 +245%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 10 $621 −$13 -2%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $5,458 −$73 -1%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1 $0 -3%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $1 $0 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 28 $147 −$9 -6%
Avalanche vs. Kings Apr 26 $9,870 +$135 +1%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $317 $0 -0%
Will Levante UD vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? Apr 23 $22 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $1,727 $0 +0%
Maple Leafs vs. Senators Apr 15 $2 $0 +0%
Hurricanes vs. Utah Apr 11 $0 $0 +0%
Oilers vs. Kings Apr 11 $3 $0 -0%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $0 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. Penguins Apr 05 $1,361 $0 -0%
Will Jake Paul fight Anthony Joshua in 2025? Dec 19 $1,233 −$1,233 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 15 $1,241 −$286 -23%
Will Lamine Yamal be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year? Dec 03 $915 −$915 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $122 2h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $68 2h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $54 2h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $22 3h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 4h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $0 43h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $232 43h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 43h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 43h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $400 43h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 43h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 43h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $18 43h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $7 43h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 43h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 43h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 43h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $74 43h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 43h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $104 43h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 43h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 43h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 43h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 43h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $363 43h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $258 43h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $50 43h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 43h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $97 43h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,077.38 · official $9,077.38 (match) · 1122 history records