Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:20:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3743…7bc1 sports 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized +$0 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%30W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days−$162
14 days−$172
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$65
other 32% −$260
world 11% +$88
crypto 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -13.3% -21.5% 55% 55% -15.9%
≤30d 59 -15.5% -23.5% 51% 51% -10.4%
≤90d 59 -15.5% -23.5% 51% 51% -10.4%
all 59 -15.5% -23.5% 51% 51% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 51% -10.4%
10% -30.8% 44% -19.0%
15% -37.5% 25% -26.8%
20% -43.7% 17% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$31 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses30 / 29
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)59 / 61
History coverage25d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 70¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 −$50 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$29 +142%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $25 +$12 +47%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $50 +$13 +26%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$8 +54%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$34 +34%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +30%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$14 +27%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 −$2 -12%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $81 +$44 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $71 +$34 +48%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$14 +93%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $20 −$7 -33%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$14 -54%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $40 +$16 +40%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $50 +$16 +32%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $94 +$24 +26%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $86 −$85 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -79%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $131 −$130 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $45 +$14 +31%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -80%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $129 +$102 +79%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 +$12 +79%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$20 +20%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 −$7 -14%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $35 +$10 +27%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$22 +55%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $35 +$12 +34%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 +$21 +42%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $101 +$11 +11%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $101 +$31 +31%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $50 +$9 +19%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $50 +$10 +20%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $101 +$25 +24%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $111 −$10 -9%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $50 8m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 43m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Over $1 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $49 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $50 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $37 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 67¢ $25 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $63 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 80¢ $23 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 79¢ $50 5h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $20 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $135 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $7 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 6h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $64 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $50 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $25 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 40¢ $13 21h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 41¢ $10 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $56 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 25h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $15 25h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 66¢ $30 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $45 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.36 · official $96.36 (match) · 113 history records