Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:53:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3743…8ba5 crypto 1045 markets active 5d ago coverage 80d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 79d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,584 (-4%) realized −$2,557 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate60%630W / 412L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day29.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$191
14 days−$115
30 days−$899
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$2,322
world 4% +$256
politics 1% −$217
other 0% −$60
sports 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -45.7% -50.8% 33% 33% -74.3%
≤30d 190 -13.8% -22.0% 48% 37% -24.7%
≤90d 1042 -6.8% -15.7% 60% 33% -12.3%
all 1042 -6.8% -15.7% 60% 33% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 33% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 25% -20.7%
15% -31.1% 20% -28.4%
20% -37.8% 17% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$35 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$2,557
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses630 / 412
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1042 / 1045
History coverage80d ⚠
Avg bet$71
Trades / day29.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1042 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026? Yes 44¢ 15¢ $20 $7 −$13 (-65%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 38¢ 28¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Will Waymo operate in 12 or more cities on June 30 2026? Yes 28¢ 2¢ $13 $1 −$12 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $107 −$104 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$25 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 04 $12 +$10 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 04 $21 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 04 $31 +$22 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 04 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 03 $8 +$7 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 03 $88 −$12 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 03 $25 +$22 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 03 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 03 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 03 $10 +$4 +34%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 02 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 02 $11 +$10 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 26 $21 +$44 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 25 $42 +$69 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 25 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 25 $17 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 25 $16 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 25 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 25 $31 −$7 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 25 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 25 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 22 $30 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 22 $21 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 22 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $107 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $52 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $12 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $26 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $31 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $8 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.44 · official $11.44 (match) · 3500 history records