Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:58:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3742…0b32 other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$1
other 28% −$4
economics 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
politics 4% $0
sports 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 5 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -11.4%
≤90d 12 +0.8% -8.8% 25% 0% -9.8%
all 29 -8.6% -17.3% 41% 0% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 0% -10.9%
10% -25.2% 0% -19.4%
15% -32.4% 0% -27.2%
20% -39.1% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage466d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $38 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $66 −$3 -5%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $9 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $1 $0 +6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $43 −$2 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $8 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $41 +$3 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $17 +$2 +9%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $8 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 27 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will another candidate win? May 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win the most votes in the first round of the Po May 18 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? May 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 16 $4 $0 +1%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canad May 05 $6 $0 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 31 $5 −$4 -77%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 21 $14 $0 +0%
Israeli military action against Iran by Friday? Mar 20 $14 $0 +2%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 19 $14 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 16? Mar 17 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $42 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $42 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $10 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $28 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $5 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $34 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 40h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 44h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 44h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $25 46h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $16 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $23 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $41 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 29¢ $9 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 30¢ $9 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 30d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $16 31d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $25 31d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 31d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $39 31d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $6 31d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 31d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $8 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $2 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 90 history records