Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:26:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x3741…517e sports 475 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,981 (+4%) realized +$7,281 · open −$300
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%214W / 260L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$329per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Fees−$1,976est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 122d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$11,819
other 0% −$196
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -2.4% -11.7% 50% 47% -18.2%
≤30d 113 -33.6% -39.9% 35% 33% -39.0%
≤90d 344 -19.9% -27.6% 42% 40% -22.2%
all 474 -15.1% -23.2% 45% 43% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 43% -17.2%
10% -30.5% 40% -25.1%
15% -37.2% 37% -32.4%
20% -43.4% 32% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$240 vs −$243 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7,281
Unrealized−$300
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses214 / 260
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$1,976
Open positions1
Markets (closed)474 / 475
History coverage122d
Avg bet$329
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 474 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Enjoy 40¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 135 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $490 +$509 +104%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) Jun 25 $1,015 −$1,005 -99%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $525 −$525 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $222 −$222 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $159 +$191 +120%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $382 +$367 +96%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $283 −$158 -56%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $899 −$576 -64%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $211 +$108 +51%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $615 +$37 +6%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $557 +$691 +124%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $894 −$144 -16%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $375 −$375 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $773 −$485 -63%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $155 −$155 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $201 +$24 +12%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $62 +$108 +175%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $579 −$277 -48%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $353 +$105 +30%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 21 $2 −$1 -48%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $720 +$459 +64%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 21 $186 +$31 +16%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $398 +$736 +185%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $167 −$167 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $146 +$193 +132%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $255 −$250 -98%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $375 −$375 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $188 +$162 +86%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $400 +$360 +90%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $1,012 −$412 -41%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $244 −$244 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $616 −$405 -66%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $990 −$520 -52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $530 −$136 -26%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $132 +$182 +138%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $352 +$197 +56%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $485 −$261 -54%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $462 −$462 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $207 +$178 +86%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $115 −$115 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $115 −$115 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $502 +$247 +49%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $417 −$412 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $318 +$344 +108%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $120 +$180 +150%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $230 +$166 +72%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $23 +$5 +20%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $291 +$302 +104%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $74 −$73 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY Enjoy 40¢ $96 50m
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY Enjoy 40¢ $160 50m
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY Enjoy 40¢ $44 50m
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner SELL HULIGANI 100¢ $999 1h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 49¢ $4 2h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 49¢ $5 2h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 49¢ $5 2h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 49¢ $5 2h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 49¢ $425 2h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 49¢ $46 2h
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) BUY TEAM VISION 67¢ $1,015 18h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 70¢ $436 19h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 70¢ $4 19h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 70¢ $4 19h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 70¢ $82 19h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 40¢ $6 21h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 40¢ $97 21h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 40¢ $33 21h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 40¢ $10 21h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 40¢ $75 21h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 40¢ $1 21h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $350 21h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 43¢ $9 22h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 45¢ $58 22h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 45¢ $91 22h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $749 41h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Virtus.pro 51¢ $382 42h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 46¢ $161 43h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 46¢ $44 43h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 46¢ $1 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.38 · official $0.38 (match) · 2566 history records