Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:02:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
37 0x373e…4384 crypto 1729 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$127 (+2%) realized +$124 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate81%1401W / 325L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day25.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$9
14 days−$28
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 165 +1.4% -8.2% 78% 76% -8.4%
≤30d 663 +0.3% -9.2% 84% 64% -9.1%
≤90d 1726 +1.0% -8.7% 81% 65% -9.3%
all 1726 +1.0% -8.7% 81% 65% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 65% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 37% -18.0%
15% -25.4% 16% -25.9%
20% -32.7% 7% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$124
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses1401 / 325
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1726 / 1729
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day25.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1726 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Down 80¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Down 86¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Down 90¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 40m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 42m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 13h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 13h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 23h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 25h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 27h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.45 · official $17.61 (match) · 3500 history records