Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:22:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
37 0x373d…bab9 crypto 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$98 (-3%) realized −$98 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day50.0pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$194
other 7% +$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -21.8% -29.2% 58% 37% -12.5%
≤30d 19 -21.8% -29.2% 58% 37% -12.5%
≤90d 19 -21.8% -29.2% 58% 37% -12.5%
all 19 -21.8% -29.2% 58% 37% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.2% 37% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -36.0% 32% -20.9%
15% -42.2% 21% -28.5%
20% -47.8% 11% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$78 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day50.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $153 −$150 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $470 +$205 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $461 +$17 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $402 +$35 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $201 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $172 +$29 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $113 +$26 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $102 +$51 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$13 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $127 +$42 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $15 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $211 +$96 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records