Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:04:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x373c…ba22 politics 123 markets active 0h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,200 (+1%) realized +$1,202 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate7%8W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$1,305per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$279now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$9
14 days−$85
30 days−$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$1,480
politics 45% −$93
sports 3% −$210
economics 2% −$5
culture 1% −$3
tech 1% −$3
world 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 42 -3.8% -12.9% 12% 7% -9.8%
≤90d 122 -3.5% -12.7% 7% 5% -8.9%
all 122 -3.5% -12.7% 7% 5% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 5% -8.9%
10% -21.1% 5% -17.6%
15% -28.7% 4% -25.5%
20% -35.7% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,655) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$209 vs −$4 · ×46.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.33 per $1 lost it wins $3.33
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$279
Realized+$1,202
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage87d
Avg bet$1,305
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 98¢ $281 $279 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,070 −$2 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,578 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $786 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $684 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $2,207 −$3 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $4,091 −$5 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,288 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $4,282 −$5 -0%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $845 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $2,454 −$3 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $62 +$49 +79%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $247 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 02 $315 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1,871 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $1,917 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $395 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $503 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $2,239 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $3,213 −$5 -0%
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $66 +$18 +27%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $375 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $2,170 −$3 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw? May 21 $55 −$55 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $34 +$13 +40%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $1,377 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $1,511 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $2,756 −$4 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $4,283 −$5 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $2,710 −$4 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $1,413 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $1,422 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $4,348 −$5 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $1,644 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $1,681 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $1,671 −$3 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $2,856 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $527 17m
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $528 1h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $522 2h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $523 5h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $566 22h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $567 26h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $519 46h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $519 2d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $481 2d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $482 2d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $562 2d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $563 3d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $281 4d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $785 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $786 6d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $683 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $684 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $622 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $623 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $629 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $630 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $617 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $618 9d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $758 9d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $758 9d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $605 9d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $606 10d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $855 10d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $856 11d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $824 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $278.87 · official $278.87 (match) · 384 history records