Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:19:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x373c…f807 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate39%17W / 27L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$1
politics 25% $0
other 22% +$2
culture 6% $0
economics 5% $0
sports 5% $0
finance 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 6 -0.9% -10.4% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 7 -4.8% -13.9% 43% 0% -9.4%
all 44 -0.1% -9.6% 39% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 2% -9.2%
10% -18.3% 2% -17.9%
15% -26.2% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses17 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage274d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $53 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $48 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $13 −$1 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $45 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $53 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $53 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $2 −$1 -28%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 06 $21 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 13 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Osasuna win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 14 $9 $0 +2%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21? Oct 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 23 $32 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 12 $8 $0 +4%
Will Rental Family win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 10 $44 $0 -0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Oct 09 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 09 $22 −$1 -2%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Oct 02 $9 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Oct 02 $7 $0 +1%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 29 $45 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 29 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $23 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $23 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 28 $23 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $42 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 23 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $48 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $25 20h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $29 22h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $53 24h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $48 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $48 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 36¢ $12 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 36¢ $12 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 37¢ $9 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 37¢ $24 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 36¢ $32 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $53 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $53 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $37 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $16 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $53 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes $2 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes $2 30d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $21 109d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? BUY No 81¢ $7 209d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? BUY No 81¢ $2 209d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? SELL Yes 79¢ $6 209d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? SELL Yes 79¢ $4 209d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 209d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? SELL Yes 79¢ $4 209d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 79¢ $9 210d
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? SELL No 73¢ $9 210d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.88 · official $47.77 (match) · 284 history records