Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:56:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
37 0x373a…f4c1 sports 749 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$45,614 (+35%) realized +$42,667 · open +$2,947
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%329W / 271L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day44.9pace
Fees−$749est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$48,911now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 58d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$1,987
sports 45% +$9,806
politics 1% −$472
crypto 1% +$73
world 0% +$53
finance 0% −$235
weather 0% −$187
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +19.0% +7.7% 65% 60% -6.0%
≤30d 183 -9.7% -18.3% 45% 38% -19.9%
≤90d 600 +27.0% +14.9% 55% 50% -2.2%
all 600 +27.0% +14.9% 55% 50% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.9% 50% -2.2%
10% ← realistic here +3.9% 46% -11.6%
15% -6.2% 44% -20.1%
20% -15.4% 40% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +52% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$105 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$48,911
Realized+$42,667
Unrealized+$2,947
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses329 / 271
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$749
Open positions169
Markets (closed)600 / 749
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$172
Trades / day44.9
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 169 History 600 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 92¢ $1,980 $2,445 +$465 (+23%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 72¢ $1,912 $2,034 +$121 (+6%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 26¢ $1,849 $1,645 −$204 (-11%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 92¢ $858 $1,348 +$490 (+57%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 70¢ $1,223 $1,179 −$44 (-4%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 71¢ $1,058 $1,123 +$65 (+6%)
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 96¢ $820 $1,068 +$248 (+30%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1,054 $1,063 +$9 (+1%)
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 92¢ $983 $1,001 +$18 (+2%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 75¢ $995 $976 −$19 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 43¢ 56¢ $639 $840 +$201 (+31%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 54¢ $491 $831 +$339 (+69%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 52¢ 52¢ $793 $807 +$13 (+2%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 69¢ $865 $765 −$100 (-12%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 76¢ $696 $756 +$60 (+9%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 94¢ $576 $714 +$139 (+24%)
Will Ecuador reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 86¢ $643 $692 +$49 (+8%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 68¢ $644 $676 +$32 (+5%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 95¢ $618 $676 +$58 (+9%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 64¢ $680 $665 −$15 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 84¢ $651 $663 +$12 (+2%)
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 88¢ $617 $637 +$20 (+3%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 86¢ $276 $598 +$322 (+117%)
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 62¢ $515 $564 +$49 (+10%)
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 86¢ $545 $538 −$6 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 17 $139 −$139 -100%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $981 +$107 +11%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $24 +$5 +20%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $603 +$215 +36%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $132 −$132 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $532 +$12 +2%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $296 +$168 +57%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $60 +$34 +56%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $279 −$209 -75%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Hurricanes win the 2026 Stanley Cup 4-2 be the exact series outco Jun 14 $187 −$187 -100%
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $7 +$10 +138%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $10 +$13 +133%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $4 +$6 +156%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 13 $205 −$205 -100%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 11 $225 +$257 +114%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 11 $180 +$211 +117%
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $28 +$25 +89%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $25 +$38 +150%
Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 10 $180 −$180 -100%
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $107 −$107 -100%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 09 $47 +$62 +131%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $205 +$329 +161%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 08 $18 −$18 -100%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 08 $26 −$26 -100%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 05 $269 +$2 +1%
NBA Finals: Game 1 Winner to be Champion? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 04 $48 −$48 -100%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5 Jun 04 $174 −$174 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 04 $577 −$277 -48%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $166 −$166 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 04 $225 −$225 -100%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 12.5 Jun 04 $31 +$23 +75%
Will Gary Woodland win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 01 $753 +$47 +6%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 01 $59 +$9 +16%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 01 $738 +$62 +8%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 01 $1,739 +$285 +16%
Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 01 $0 +$3 +900%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 01 $310 +$3 +1%
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 31 $466 +$257 +55%
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 May 31 $176 +$222 +126%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 May 31 $9 +$10 +117%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 May 31 $167 +$198 +118%
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? May 30 $204 +$96 +47%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime? May 30 $162 +$138 +85%
NHL: Stanley Cup Winner USA or Canada? May 30 $954 +$243 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA BUY No 62¢ $3 5m
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA BUY No 61¢ $59 14m
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA BUY No 80¢ $80 15m
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA BUY No 60¢ $60 22m
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA BUY No 60¢ $30 22m
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the Mexico vs South Korea BUY No 73¢ $44 1h
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Canada vs Qa BUY Yes 58¢ $68 1h
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Canada vs Qa BUY Yes 55¢ $11 1h
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World BUY Yes 90¢ $90 2h
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World BUY Yes 90¢ $10 2h
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World C BUY Yes 94¢ $16 2h
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World BUY Yes 89¢ $33 2h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIF BUY Yes 71¢ $49 2h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIF BUY Yes 71¢ $71 2h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIF BUY Yes 75¢ $4 2h
Will Algeria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $269 2h
Will Saudi Arabia finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr BUY Yes 42¢ $13 4h
Will Saudi Arabia finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr BUY Yes 42¢ $14 5h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $6 7h
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $125 8h
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $56 8h
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $130 10h
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 68¢ $67 11h
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $21 11h
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $8 13h
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 73¢ $54 14h
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $4 15h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $68 16h
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $4 17h
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $4 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48,911.35 · official $48,892.38 (match) · 3500 history records