Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:08:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

37
0x3739…1ee9
world · 52 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$483 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$484 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$484
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses21 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage174d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 0 History 52 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $175 +$3 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $3 $0 -8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $474 −$12 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $381 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $161 +$7 +4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $382 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $181 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $195 −$2 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $69 −$1 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $331 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $784 +$1 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $242 +$13 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $195 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $196 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $323 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $311 +$1 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $177 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $34 −$3 -8%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $117 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $185 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $61 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $84 +$4 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $174 +$11 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $173 +$1 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $5 $0 +5%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $15 $0 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 18 $155 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 18 $9 −$3 -32%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 18 $22 −$1 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $170 +$1 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $170 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $31 −$1 -4%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $163 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $21 $0 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $175 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $172 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $333 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $793 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $159 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $158 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $183 −$1 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $104 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $7 $0 +1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $180 −$3 -2%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 20 $596 −$590 -99%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 29 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2025-12-27? Dec 28 $205 +$92 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 52% +$24
other 18% +$86
sports 14% −$1
crypto 6% −$1
politics 6% −$593
economics 3% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $177 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $175 6h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 7h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $26 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $58 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $96 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $87 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $96 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $73 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $110 25h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $51 37h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $117 37h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 73¢ $161 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $195 42h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $198 43h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $180 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $143 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $130 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $91 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $38 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 90¢ $123 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 92¢ $126 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 89¢ $85 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 89¢ $62 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -1.0% -10.4% 27% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 33 +13.4% +2.6% 48% 3% -9.2%
≤90d 48 +6.4% -3.7% 42% 2% -15.5%
all 52 +6.8% -3.4% 40% 4% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 4% -13.7%
10% -12.6% 4% -22.0%
15% -21.1% 4% -29.5%
20% -28.8% 2% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.49 · official $0.00 (match) · 257 history records