Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:24:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
37 0x3737…bfd1 sports 304 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$682 (-1%) realized −$758 · open +$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate60%181W / 122L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$288per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$994est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$252now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$196
7 days+$1,300
14 days+$320
30 days−$1,399
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,265
crypto 0% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +2.9% -6.9% 60% 53% +0.2%
≤30d 290 +0.5% -9.1% 60% 55% -11.0%
≤90d 303 +0.0% -9.5% 60% 55% -11.0%
all 303 +0.0% -9.5% 60% 55% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 55% -11.0%
10% -18.2% 48% -19.5%
15% -26.1% 33% -27.3%
20% -33.3% 24% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +8% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$155 vs −$242 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$252
Realized−$758
Unrealized+$76
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses181 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$994
Open positions1
Markets (closed)303 / 304
History coverage36d
Avg bet$288
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner T1 Academy 70¢ 100¢ $176 $252 +$76 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 102 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $198 −$196 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $282 +$91 +32%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $313 +$54 +17%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $305 +$79 +26%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $313 −$80 -25%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $383 −$173 -45%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $514 +$532 +104%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $98 −$97 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $109 −$108 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $293 +$409 +140%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $274 +$170 +62%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $155 +$105 +67%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $172 +$10 +6%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $154 +$215 +140%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $193 +$125 +65%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $213 +$58 +27%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $236 +$54 +23%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $169 +$45 +27%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $185 −$183 -99%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $262 +$22 +9%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $292 −$290 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $336 +$92 +27%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $330 −$322 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $311 −$309 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $166 −$165 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $174 +$76 +44%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $503 +$1,362 +271%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $269 +$94 +35%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $145 −$142 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $217 +$391 +180%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $148 −$146 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $165 −$162 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $189 +$32 +17%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $68 +$21 +31%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $273 +$73 +27%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $126 +$330 +262%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $61 +$33 +55%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $152 +$11 +7%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $75 +$18 +24%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $390 −$176 -45%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $115 +$108 +93%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $362 +$1 +0%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $321 −$319 -99%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $104 −$102 -98%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $143 −$140 -98%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $421 +$135 +32%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $113 +$39 +34%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $127 +$151 +119%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $387 −$109 -28%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $43 −$42 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $178 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 63¢ $198 43h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 75¢ $282 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 85¢ $313 2d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 79¢ $305 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 60¢ $98 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 46¢ $109 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 59¢ $262 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 57¢ $121 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 57¢ $135 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 34¢ $178 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 48¢ $150 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 48¢ $167 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $197 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 41¢ $293 3d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 61¢ $274 3d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 59¢ $155 3d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 55¢ $185 3d
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner BUY Solary 94¢ $172 3d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 41¢ $154 3d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 60¢ $193 3d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 78¢ $213 3d
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 81¢ $236 3d
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 78¢ $169 3d
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 92¢ $262 3d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 76¢ $292 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 23¢ $330 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 79¢ $162 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $149 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 87¢ $166 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $251.99 · official $251.99 (match) · 644 history records