Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:45:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x372e…d58e sports 96 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (699 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate61%58W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day698.8pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$153
crypto 32% +$7
other 9% +$108
weather 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (699 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 +2.9% -6.9% 61% 45% -11.5%
≤30d 95 +2.9% -6.9% 61% 45% -11.5%
≤90d 95 +2.9% -6.9% 61% 45% -11.5%
all 95 +2.9% -6.9% 61% 45% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover698.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.9% 45% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -15.8% 32% -19.9%
15% -23.9% 18% -27.7%
20% -31.4% 11% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses58 / 37
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)95 / 96
History coverage1d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day698.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 95 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $6 +$1 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$5 -45%
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 29 $6 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$4 +38%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 29 $7 +$2 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 29 $9 +$1 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 29 $8 +$1 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $9 +$3 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $20 −$11 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$2 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 29 $19 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 29 $18 +$6 +33%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 29 $8 +$2 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$10 -38%
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 29 $24 +$5 +20%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 29 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$8 -32%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 29 $36 −$27 -74%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 29 $36 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 29 $35 +$4 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 29 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 29 $34 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 29 $33 +$11 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 29 $15 −$6 -40%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$3 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 29 $14 +$5 +39%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $13 +$2 +17%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 29 $8 +$3 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 29 $16 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$3 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$5 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$2 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 29 $8 +$1 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 29 $4 +$1 +37%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 30? Jun 29 $50 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 29? Jun 29 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 29? Jun 29 $5 $0 +1%
Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 29? Jun 29 $5 $0 -0%
Wimbledon WTA: Belinda Bencic vs Mika Stojsavljevic Jun 29 $15 −$11 -75%
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Jun 29 $2 $0 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 0m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 0m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $6 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $6 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 30m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 30m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 35m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 35m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $7 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 35m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $6 35m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 40m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $8 40m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $20 45m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $9 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $20 45m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 50m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $19 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $24 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $18 55m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 901 history records