Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:34:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
37 0x372c…597b crypto 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 649d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$28 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate94%105W / 7L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 65% +$18
crypto 34% +$13
economics 0% −$5
other 0% +$5
tech 0% −$5
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 22 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 112 +3.0% -6.8% 94% 18% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 18% -9.4%
10% -15.7% 9% -18.1%
15% -23.9% 6% -26.0%
20% -31.3% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

649d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses105 / 7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)112 / 118
History coverage649d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $88 $88 −$0 (-0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? No 91¢ 98¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 88¢ 41¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $79 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 23? May 27 $162 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on May 11? May 17 $165 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $230 end of April? May 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30? May 02 $7 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 28? Apr 29 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 23? Apr 27 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 19? Apr 22 $155 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $163 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on April 15? Apr 17 $158 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 8? Apr 10 $162 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 6? Apr 07 $169 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 3? Apr 04 $169 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 2? Apr 03 $169 $0 +0%
Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st? Apr 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 02 $7 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 27? Mar 29 $155 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $158 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $155 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 19? Mar 21 $156 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on March 14? Mar 18 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 12? Mar 13 $168 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 9? Mar 11 $162 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 7? Mar 08 $167 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 1? Mar 06 $162 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $162 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 22? Feb 23 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 17? Feb 19 $165 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 15? Feb 16 $163 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 12? Feb 13 $166 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 10? Feb 11 $162 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 8? Feb 09 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 2? Feb 04 $162 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 31? Feb 01 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $100,000 on January 30? Jan 31 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 28? Jan 29 $159 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 26? Jan 26 $163 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on January Jan 24 $157 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on January 22? Jan 23 $159 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 19? Jan 20 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 16? Jan 17 $166 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 9? Jan 10 $166 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 7? Jan 08 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on January 4? Jan 05 $164 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $88 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $79 43h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $3 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $4 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY No 91¢ $4 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $7 3d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control BUY No 99¢ $2 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $162 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $165 40d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $161 53d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $160 58d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $155 61d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $230 end of April? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $163 63d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $158 66d
Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $7 68d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $162 73d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $169 76d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $169 77d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $169 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $150 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $155 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $158 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $155 89d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $156 93d
Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st? BUY No 100¢ $4 94d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 99¢ $7 94d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on March 14? BUY No 100¢ $161 98d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 12? BUY No 100¢ $168 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.93 · official $105.93 (match) · 346 history records